Global adspend will rise 5.8% in 2014

Warc, 30 July 2014

LONDON: Global adspend is expected to increase by 5.8% in 2014 and by 5% next year, according to the latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc.

Overall, total global adspend growth for 2014 has recorded a positive 0.6pp rise in expectations since January.

The Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc's own team and other industry bodies. The latest findings are available here.

It reveals a more positive outlook for the great majority of the 13 markets covered in the report since the last forecast was published in January 2014.

Brazil and the other BRIC countries have emerged as the strongest performers this year, and three of them are expected to record double-digit growth.

This includes positive growth of 12.8% in Brazil (up 2.4pp since January), 11.3% in India (+0.3pp), and 11.1% in China (-0.1pp).

Russia, which previously was expected to record double-digit growth this year, is now forecast to grow by 9% after a 1.7pp downgrade since the last report.

The UK and the US are expected to be the top performing markets after the BRICs this year, registering predicted growth of 6.4% and 5.5% respectively.

Growth in the major eurozone countries is expected to be more sluggish, however, with Germany expected to record 1.6% growth in advertising expenditure, followed by Spain (1.5%), and France (0.4%). Italy is the only country forecast a decline on -0.4%.

"After Brazil, the UK and the US have both seen total adspend upgrades since January, making them the best-performing markets outside the BRICs," said Suzy Young, data and journals director at Warc.

"By contrast, the established markets in Western Europe continue to struggle, although most should see growth in 2014," she added.

By media, all channels are predicted to record year-on-year growth with the exception of newspapers and magazines, which should decline by -4.1% and -3.5% respectively.

Adspend on the internet, the only channel for which forecasts have been upgraded since January's report, is set to rise 16.4% (up 2.3pp), followed by TV on 5.3% (-0.5pp), cinema on 4.6% (-1.2pp), out of home on 4.2% (-0.6pp) and radio on 2.0% (-0.3pp).

Data sourced from Warc