WARC, 18 February 2014
CHICAGO: Media planners could benefit from a new tool
designed to forecast earned media that employs three different "clusters"
of variables, two leading industry practitioners have explained.
Writing in the February edition of Admap, Kate Sirkin,
global research director at Starcom MediaVest Group, and Seraj Bharwani, chief
analytics officer of Visible Measures, the campaign tracking organisation,
argue that strategically planned earned media has become an integral part of
the media mix.
They introduce a new tool, dubbed Contagion, which
capitalises on large normative data sets and performance on tens of thousands
of earned media campaigns.
"The collaboration was intended to establish a set of
normative benchmarks or indices that would help the planners/buyers plan
earned-media outcomes (within a range of earned-media performance) based on
input scenarios within a media planner's domain of control," the authors
write.
The new Contagion tool, Sirkin and Bharwani explain, is
grounded in "three different clusters of variables having high statistical
significance with respect to impact on EM outcomes".
These include variables related to the branded video
creative (the content); variables characterising the environment (the
publishers/networks) where the videos were syndicated; and, finally, parameters
representing the online media investments (bought media placements) allocated
for the individual campaigns in the data set.
Contagion programs this set of variables as controls and is
currently web-accessible in beta mode to approximately 200 planners and buyers,
who use it at one of several Publicis Groupe agencies.
"Contagion is most relevant for planning campaigns with
reach expectations far beyond what the budget can help accomplish exclusively
through bought media," Sirkin and Bharwani contend.
"Planning for branded video campaigns with earned-media
expectations requires more inputs than simply media budget, target, reach and
frequency.
"It requires input on the characterisation of the
creative content and campaign association with event and/or celebrity,
preference for specific publishers to be included on the plan and other
traditional media support such as TV that might be part of the campaign."
To date, they continue, "earned-media outcomes for
campaigns planned through Contagion have generally been within a plus/minus 30%
of the range projected through the Contagion algorithm. We expect the
performance to improve as the weights are trained with more in-market campaign
data supplied by the planners currently using the system."
Data sourced from Warc
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