Warc, 11 September 2014
LONDON: Global advertising expenditure will rise faster than expected during 2014, as revised forecasts from media network Carat show growing optimism in the major regions.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat is now predicting that adspend will grow at 5% this year, up from March's projection of 4.8%, while the figure for 2015 remains unchanged on 5%.
Upwards revisions came in the leading advertising markets of North America, up from 4.3% to 4.9%, and Western Europe, up from 1.8% to 2.7%. Other regions were downgraded, although Latin America, on 12.1%, and Asia Pacific, on 5.4%, still outperformed the global figure. Only Central & Eastern Europe, down from 5% to 3.5% – and that largely due to a halving of growth in Russia because of the political situation there – could be seen as experiencing difficulties.
Even within the growing regions there are some sharp differences. The US, for example, continues to show strong on-going market growth, with levels of advertising spend now expected to increase 4.9% in 2014 (up from 4.3%). But Canada will slip back from 3.8% growth to 3.3%.
In Western Europe, the UK is leading the charge, with adspend predicted to rise 7.5% in 2014, up from the earlier figure of 5%. Other markets are largely unchanged apart from France which dipped from +0.8% to -0.9%.
By media, digital outperformed previous predictions for 2014 with year-on-year growth forecast at +16.1%. Digital will also increase its total share of spend, reaching 20.5% in 2014 and 22.6% next year, when it will outpace the combined Magazines and Newspaper global share for the first time.
The steady decline in print is expected to continue, while all other mediums are predicted to achieve year-on-year growths of approximately 3%-5% in 2014 and 2015.
Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, said the data showed "positive momentum building across the industry". On the detail of the report, he noted that digital continued to provide the headlines but added that "the components within this dominant media now provide the interesting chapters, with the opportunities in mobile leading the debate".
Warc's Consensus Ad Forecast, a weighted average of industry forecasts including those from Carat, finds that adspend is expected to rise 5.8% in 2014, and a further 5% in 2015. Digital is expected to be the largest driver for growth, with expenditure rising 16.4% and 15.1% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
Data sourced from Carat; additional content by Warc staff