Warc, 29 August 2013
LONDON: TV advertising expenditure is forecast to grow by only 2.8% in 2013 as ongoing economic problems in Europe hold back a wider global recovery, according to new data.
The TV Advertising Forecasts report from Digital TV Research, the business intelligence firm, examined the market in 55 countries and predicted that TV adspend in 2013 would reach $172bn.
Recession in several European countries, along with an expected annual slowdown in expenditure in the year after a US presidential election, the Olympic Games and the European football championships, meant the forecast growth rate was roughly half that seen in 2012.
The report saw some improvement in most regions during the year, but said it would fall in 19 of the 55 countries covered, with most of these in Europe. The hardest hit were predicted to be Greece (adspend down 10.5% year on year), the Czech Republic (-10.0%) and Spain (-10.0%).
In future years, however, the situation was expected to improve, with only the Czech Republic and Croatia predicted further declines for 2014.
Across the rest of the world, the picture was much brighter. The fastest-growing markets in 2013 are likely to be Argentina (+13.8%), Ukraine (+13.8%) and Indonesia (+13.0%).
Looking out to 2018, the report said that global TV advertising expenditure would be worth $219bn, a 32% increase from 2012's total. North America is to continue to be the single biggest market, taking a 40% share of global spend, compared to 42% in 2012. Asia Pacific's share will rise from 25% to 26% over the same period.
When considering decade-long trends, between the pre-recession year of 2008 and 2018, Latin America came out as the top region. TV adspend is expected to more than double there over the 10-year period thanks to a combination of buoyant economic growth and Brazil hosting both the FIFA World Cup and the Olympic Games over the next few years.
The contrast with Europe is marked. Over the same ten-year period, TV advertising spend in Western Europe is forecast to only be 11% higher at $33.2bn, while net 18% growth in Eastern Europe to $9.7bn is dependent entirely on increased spending in Russia.
From the $52.6bn TV adspend to be added between 2012 and 2018, $18.2bn will come from the US, followed by an extra $5.6bn from China, $4.6bn from Brazil and $3.7bn from Japan.
Data sourced from Digital TV Research; additional content by Warc staff