Warc, 29 July 2014
LAGOS: Consumption in Nigeria could more than triple to almost $1.4 trillion a year by 2030, an increase of about 8% annually, a new report has forecast.
And if the country reaches its full potential, annual GDP could exceed $1.6 trillion in 2030 – compared to $510bn in 2013 – said the McKinsey Global Institute.
This would make Nigeria a top-20 global economy, with higher GDP than the Netherlands, Malaysia, or Thailand, with a consumer class numbering 160m people.
What's more, growth could lift 70m people out of poverty, McKinsey said, and bring 120m above its "empowerment Line", a level of consumption that constitutes a decent, economically empowered standard of living, which McKinsey calculates as $1,016 per person a year in the cities and $758 in the countryside.
However, for Nigeria to make these gains, the government must improve its delivery of programmes and services, the report warned. It will be a "critical initiative" for the country to adopt the best practices established around the world, it said.
"Nigeria has extraordinary advantages for future growth, including a large consumer market, a strategic geographic location, and a young and highly entrepreneurial population," said Reinaldo Fiorini, director and location manager of McKinsey's Nigeria office.
The consultancy firm went on to advise consumer brands wanting to tap into this opportunity that they should adopt a city and regional approach, rather than a national approach, reported How We Made It In Africa.
This is to take into account the country's distinct differences in culture, wealth and demographics, and McKinsey identified three major "clusters" of cities that together have population levels similar to the 15m residents of Lagos.
These three clusters are six cities based in the Niger Delta in the southeast, a second grouping of Ibadan, Ogbomosho and Ilorin, just north of Lagos, and thirdly, a northern corridor of Kano, Zaria and Kaduna.
Data sourced from McKinsey Global Institute; additional content by Warc